Market Sizing Caribbean
Accurate market size estimates for Caribbean markets where off-the-shelf data doesn't exist. HRG's proprietary databases and 40+ years of accumulated data deliver TAM/SAM/SOM analysis, multi-island aggregation, and category sizing across 30+ island economies.
Why Market Sizing Is Uniquely Challenging in the Caribbean
Standard market sizing approaches fail in the Caribbean. Limited secondary data, small populations, fragmented markets, and significant informal economies require specialized methodologies built on deep local expertise.
Limited Secondary Data
Most Caribbean nations lack comprehensive retail tracking, industry reports, or up-to-date census data that developed markets take for granted.
- • No Nielsen or IRI retail tracking
- • Outdated government statistics
- • Limited private sector research
Informal Economy Impact
Informal trade accounts for 20-40% of economic activity in many Caribbean nations, making official data significantly undercount true market size.
- • Street vendors and informal retailers
- • Cross-border informal trade
- • Unregistered micro-businesses
Fragmented Island Markets
Each Caribbean island has different consumption patterns, price points, and distribution structures. Regional aggregation without local data creates misleading estimates.
- • Per-island consumption modeling
- • Different price indices per market
- • Varying import dependency levels
Import Dependency
Caribbean nations import 60-90% of consumer goods. Trade data analysis provides a powerful sizing proxy but requires careful interpretation and local validation.
- • Customs and trade data analysis
- • HS code-level import tracking
- • Re-export and transit trade filtering
Tourism Distortion
Tourist consumption inflates apparent market sizes seasonally. Accurate sizing must separate resident from visitor demand to avoid overestimation.
- • Resident vs. tourist demand split
- • Seasonal adjustment modeling
- • Hotel/resort channel isolation
HRG Proprietary Data Advantage
40+ years of Caribbean research gives HRG proprietary baselines, consumption benchmarks, and historical trends that no other firm can match.
- • 1,500+ category studies completed
- • Proprietary consumption benchmarks
- • Historical trend data by island
Market Sizing Methodologies
Top-Down Modeling
GDP-based estimation, import data analysis, and per-capita consumption benchmarking across markets
Bottom-Up Trade Census
Store-by-store retail audits and distributor interviews to build market size from actual trade volume data
Survey-Based Demand
Consumer surveys measuring purchase frequency, basket size, and brand preference to model demand estimation
Consumption-Based Modeling
Tracking product flow from importers through distributors to retail outlets to quantify total market volume
TAM/SAM/SOM Framework for Caribbean Markets
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The entire Caribbean market revenue opportunity for your product or service across all islands. HRG calculates TAM using import data, production statistics, and consumption benchmarks aggregated across the region using our multi-island aggregation methodology.
Serviceable Available Market (SAM)
The portion of TAM you can realistically reach given your distribution capabilities, target islands, and business model constraints. SAM accounts for distribution channel availability, regulatory access, and geographic feasibility across specific Caribbean territories.
Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)
The share of SAM you can capture given competition, brand awareness, and marketing investment. HRG models SOM using competitive analysis, distribution mapping, and consumer awareness benchmarks specific to Caribbean market dynamics.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you size a market in the Caribbean with limited data?
HRG overcomes Caribbean data limitations by triangulating multiple approaches: bottom-up trade census data from retail audits and distributor interviews, top-down modeling using import/export records, GDP indicators, and per-capita consumption benchmarks, consumption-based modeling from consumer surveys, and supply chain tracking from importers through distributors to retail. Our proprietary databases built over 40+ years provide baseline benchmarks that no other firm can replicate. We also account for informal economies (estimated at 20-40% of GDP in some islands) that official statistics miss.
What is the total addressable market for Caribbean goods?
The total addressable market varies significantly by category and how the Caribbean is defined. The English-speaking Caribbean represents approximately 7 million consumers, while the broader Caribbean basin including the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Cuba, and Haiti encompasses 44+ million people. HRG calculates TAM at the category level using local data, then narrows to SAM based on realistic distribution reach, and SOM based on competitive dynamics and brand awareness potential.
How accurate are Caribbean market size estimates?
Accuracy depends on methodology and data sources used. HRG achieves higher accuracy than global firms by combining multiple independent estimation methods and validating against proprietary historical data. Our multi-method triangulation approach typically achieves confidence intervals of +/-10-15% for established categories in major markets. For emerging or niche categories with no historical data, ranges may be wider but are clearly communicated with sensitivity analysis.
How long does market sizing take in the Caribbean?
Caribbean market sizing timelines depend on scope and methodology. Single-category, single-island desk research-based estimates can be delivered in 4-6 weeks. Primary research-based sizing with trade audits and consumer surveys typically takes 8-12 weeks. Multi-market sizing across 3-5 islands with comprehensive bottom-up and top-down analysis requires 10-16 weeks. HRG's existing proprietary data and established field networks enable faster delivery than firms starting from scratch in the region.
What data sources does HRG use for Caribbean market sizing?
HRG leverages a comprehensive range of data sources for Caribbean market sizing: proprietary databases built over 40+ years of research, government customs and trade data (import/export records by HS code), central bank and statistical institute publications, retail audit data from our field teams, distributor and wholesaler interviews, consumer surveys measuring purchase behavior and frequency, industry association data, and international trade databases. Our multi-island aggregation methodology ensures consistent cross-market comparisons.
Get Your Caribbean Market Size Estimate
Stop guessing and start knowing. HRG delivers accurate market size estimates built on 40+ years of Caribbean data, proprietary methodologies, and on-the-ground intelligence.