Retail Audit Methodology in the Caribbean: Store Universe and Trade Channels

Retail distribution data is the foundation of FMCG market intelligence, but producing reliable retail audit data in the Caribbean requires a methodology that is fundamentally different from the syndicated retail tracking services that FMCG companies rely on in Europe and North America. Caribbean markets have no Nielsen retail tracking coverage in most territories, no comprehensive registered store databases, and informal trade channels that account for 30% to 50% of volume in many categories. This guide explains how HRG builds store universes, designs audit samples, and collects retail distribution data across the region's formal and informal trade.

The Informal Trade Challenge

The defining characteristic of Caribbean retail markets from an audit methodology perspective is the co-existence of formal and informal trade channels. Formal channels include licensed supermarkets, pharmacies, department stores, and registered convenience stores that appear in business registry databases and can in principle be enumerated from official sources. Informal channels include unlicensed minimarts, home-based traders, market stalls, rum shops and bar-grocery combinations, roadside vendors, and mobile sellers who operate without formal business registration.

The economic importance of informal trade varies by island and category. In Dominica, where the formal supermarket sector is limited to a handful of stores in Roseau, the majority of dry goods and beverages are sold through a network of several hundred small shops distributed across communities throughout the island. In Jamaica, the formal supermarket sector is significant in Kingston and the urban centres, but informal higgler traders and shop keepers serve the majority of rural communities. In the Dominican Republic, colmados account for approximately 35% to 40% of consumer goods volume in staple food and beverage categories, concentrated heavily in lower-income urban neighbourhoods where formal supermarkets have limited penetration.

Building the Store Universe: Enumeration Methodology

Because no comprehensive registered outlet database exists for most Caribbean markets, HRG builds store universes through primary enumeration. The enumeration process assigns field supervisors to map all commercial areas of each island systematically, recording every outlet that sells the product category being audited. The scope of the enumeration is defined by the product category: a beverage category audit requires enumeration of all outlets where beverages are sold, which includes rum shops and bars as well as formal supermarkets, while a personal care audit might exclude the on-trade channel.

The enumeration drive records the outlet name, street address or geographic coordinates (using GPS), outlet type, estimated size class (micro under 100 sq ft, small 100-500 sq ft, medium 500-2,000 sq ft, large above 2,000 sq ft), and the categories of products visibly available. This produces the master outlet database, or store universe, from which the audit sample is drawn. In a market like Barbados, the store universe for an FMCG category typically includes 600 to 900 outlets across all channels. In Jamaica, the universe for a beverage category can exceed 15,000 outlets including the informal on-trade.

Designing the Audit Sample

Once the store universe is established, the audit sample is drawn using stratified probability sampling. The stratification dimensions are channel type and geographic zone. Channel stratification ensures that each trade channel is represented in the audit sample in proportion to its estimated share of category volume, not simply its share of outlet numbers. A supermarket may represent 5% of total outlets but 40% of category volume, and the sample must reflect this weighting to enable accurate weighted distribution calculations.

Geographic stratification in Caribbean markets typically uses the island's administrative parish or district boundaries as strata, ensuring that outlets in remote rural areas are not systematically excluded from the sample. The number of outlets audited per stratum is determined by the required precision for channel-level estimates. If the client needs distribution estimates with 10% margin of error at channel level, approximately 100 outlets per channel are required. If market-level estimates with 5% margin of error are sufficient, a total sample of 200 to 400 outlets distributed across channels proportionally achieves this for most Caribbean market sizes.

Data Collection and Quality Control

Data collection is conducted using CAPI (Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing) tablets with GPS logging that records the device location at the start and end of each audit visit, verifying that the auditor was physically present at the recorded outlet address. This GPS verification is the primary quality control mechanism for Caribbean retail audits, where the absence of back-checking infrastructure (there is no way to revisit a small rum shop to verify whether the auditor was actually there) makes location verification essential. All data is transmitted to the central database within 24 hours of collection, with automated logic checks flagging anomalies for supervisor review before the next field day begins.